Rest of 2024 Box Office Predictions: Ranking the 19 Hottest Films
The rest of the year has an interesting slate that could go a million ways which makes it fun to predict. Here is a ranking of how we at Feature First think they’ll perform at the worldwide box office.
We did one for Summer you can check it out as well.
19. ‘Speak No Evil’
Worldwide Box Office Range: $34M to $46M
Speak No Evil is likely to be another Blumhouse film that does very solid. Could it breakout? Yes. Will it breakout? Probably not. We expect this to do decently and maybe make a profit if the budget isn’t crazy.
18. ‘Megalopolis’
Worldwide Box Office Range: $45M to $60M
Megalopolis is almost certainly going to lose money for Francis Ford Coppola and Lionsgate. The question just becomes how much? We think Megalopolis will not make back its production budget of $120M, but maybe if it’s lucky it can make half of that mark.
17. ‘Here’
Worldwide Box Office Range: $53M to $72M
Here has two things going for it, Tom Hanks and a killer concept. Hanks star power probably can’t take a movie all the way to hundreds of millions but A Man Called Otto made over a $100M.
This movie’s key to success is that the older generation really love this reunion between director Robert Zemeckis and Hanks or are very interested in the concept. It’s hard to see younger people latching on to this one so we bet on it making a bit of money but just not anything significant.
16. ‘Nosferatu’
Worldwide Box Office Range: $53M to $72M
The Witch is the only movie in Robert Eggers‘ young career that has made a profit thus far. It’s unclear what the budget of this one is but it has a shot at doing okay in our opinion. If it’s marketed as a horror, it could make serious money, and Focus Features seems to be backing it quite strongly. This one all depends on the marketing.
15. ‘Saturday Night’
Worldwide Box Office Range: $62M to $83M
This one is quite hard to predict. It has mostly rising stars on the cast, it’s a comedy, but it’s a comedy of one of the most iconic shows ever made. Saturday Night Live is a staple for so many people from so many generations.
It’s hard to know if those people will show up for it but it does seem to be produced by SNL studios so it has the benefit of their marketing. It also has a really solid release date so if people end up craving a rare theatrical comedy, maybe this does well.
14. ‘Smile 2’
Worldwide Box Office Range: $148M to $200M
Perhaps a bold bet here but we believe Smile 2 will make less than the original. Smile was a marketing phenomenon through and through. It’s going to be hard to replicate for Paramount, and it also has some challenges with that. It’s a new lead which rarely helps at the box office when looking at horror sequels.
All that said, maybe Paramount recreates that success again but I wouldn’t personally bet on it.
13. ‘Kraven The Hunter’
Worldwide Box Office Range: $170M to $230M
The SPUMC has two films left this year after the massive stinker that Madame Web was. Venom: The Last Dance feels like a safe bet so it’s very unlikely they go 0/3 but can Kraven help go 2/3? We find it unlikely, but it should at the very least out perform Madame Web and Morbius.
If this movie succeeds, it likely means the action was a major selling point and I’d assume legs were strong. It’s not impossible, but it just feels unlikely this does what Sony wants it to do.
12. ‘Wicked’
Worldwide Box Office Range: $212M to $287M
The biggest issue Wicked has is that it releases 5 days before Moana 2. It needs a massive opening weekend at the very least to offset that. It opens alongside Gladiator II which luckily for Wicked, the audiences don’t overlap.
It’s unclear if Ariana Grande can bring in her fanbase to this film, if she can maybe this film can do really well. We just don’t think this one will do all that much damage in the end. It’d be unclear what happens to Part 2 if this one flops, so maybe Universal pushes it extra hard as we get closer.
11. ‘The Wild Robot’
Worldwide Box Office Range: $234M to $317M
The Wild Robot is an interesting box office story. This one will all depend on the legs. Luckily it has the PG animated scene on lock as all the other major animated films from its release until Moana all the way in November are PG-13. It’ll have a lot of time to earn money through families. If quality is expected, I would bet on some solid box office returns.
10. ‘A Complete Unknown’
Worldwide Box Office Range: $234M to $317M
This movie will likely determine if Timothée Chalamet has real star power. He’s had two massive hits back to back, both IP-based. Although Chalamet is playing one of the most iconic singers ever, it does still offer a chance to prove it.
We believe this James Mangold-directed film will skate by to solid numbers purely from Chalamet. Likely around Elvis numbers, but it does desperately need to be good in order to get people to go to the theater for it.
9. ‘The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim’
Worldwide Box Office Range: $276M to $374M
The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim is a rare anime film making its way to theaters worldwide. It’s unclear how much interest there will be, but the Lord of the Rings franchise is incredibly popular so it’ll likely do well enough to make a profit of sorts.
8. ‘Transformers One’
Worldwide Box Office Range: $308M to $417M
Transformers since 2007 has been an extraordinary franchise at the box office. While it has diminished in recent years, it’s still a brand to look out for. Transformers One is getting a lot of praise from those who have seen it, and it’ll likely have a solid opening weekend. If the quality is there, this one could really leg out into making decent money.
7. ‘Beetlejuice Beetlejuice’
Worldwide Box Office Range: $340M to $460M
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice is looking to do well domestically, but the battle it has will be international. Will it be another Twisters where the domestic gross dominates? Both the original films of both series didn’t release internationally so it’s likely the appeal isn’t quite there. But domestically, the film should do well enough to mitigate that.
6. ‘Gladiator II’
Worldwide Box Office Range: $351M to $474M
There is nothing harder to predict than legacy sequels. Sometimes you get a Creed, or a Top Gun: Maverick, but you can also get Indiana Jones: Dial of Destiny. This is unique in that none of the leads, besides Connie Nielsen will return, and that the original was a Best Picture winner.
We think that there are going to be a number of fans of the first movie that come to see it, so it’ll perform decently but not enough to make back its enormous budget. The biggest factor in the performance will be the quality of the film, and if it’s closer to the original in that sense then there is a shot it does really well. But if you’re a betting man, I wouldn’t quite bet on that.
5. ‘Sonic the Hedgehog 3’
Worldwide Box Office Range: $457M to $618M
Sonic The Hedgehog grossed $319M, Sonic The Hedgehog 2 made $405M. We’re almost certain Sonic The Hedgehog 3 will outgross both by a considerable margin. There seems to be more fanfare on these films, and they’ve grown in popularity slowly but surely. They’re made on relatively cheap budgets so this one should be a big success.
4. ‘Venom: The Last Dance’
Worldwide Box Office Range: $468M to $632M
The supposed final film in the Tom Hardy Venom solo film saga will be an interesting one to track. These films are undoubtedly SPUMC’s biggest gem. Both films in the series thus far have been very profitable. This one, barring a massive budget increase, should follow suit. We believe this one will make a bit more than the second film but lower than the first. All in all, that would be a very solid performance to wrap up the trilogy.
3. ‘Mufasa: The Lion King’
Worldwide Box Office Range: $531M to $719M
A prequel and sequel to The Lion King all-in-one movie is interesting. The first one did gangbusters numbers-wise but we don’t predict the Mufasa: The Lion King will quite do as well. It’ll likely make its money back but it’s hard to foresee numbers similar to the 2019 film considering the allure is likely gone.
While trailer views aren’t the best metric, they are an indication of sorts. This movie hasn’t had much discussion surrounding it which is unfortunately a massive sign when it comes to Disney projects.
2. ‘Joker: Folie à Deux’
Worldwide Box Office Range: $701M to $949M
Joker 2 is hard to judge considering how well the first one did. We’re sure this one will do well but it’s gonna be a hard task to reach a billion for this film. It has a tough road ahead as it’ll heavily depend on the quality of the film. It’s also a musical, that is kind of being hidden in marketing which could backfire.
It will however get a bigger opening weekend than Joker so it’ll all depend on the legs. Regardless, a $850M ish gross would still be incredible for this film. It debuts 4 days early in IMAX so it should get somewhat of a leg up on competition.
1. ‘Moana 2’
Worldwide Box Office Range: $828.75M to $1.121B
Moana 2 is the safest bet to make if someone asked what film this year will make a billion dollars. The original made $687.2M over 8 years ago and has since dominated Disney+. There’s also a chance it misses the billion-dollar mark partly because it’s a TV show turned into a film, which does seem like it could maybe hurt the film quality-wise. But then again, quality is not the biggest factor in a family film unless it’s a disaster which I doubt it is.
One thing is for sure, it’ll almost surely do better than the original and more likely than not be the highest-grossing film for the rest of the year.
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