This year’s summer has a pretty good slate filled with a lot of films in a franchise that could do some real damage. Here is a ranking of how we at Feature First think they’ll perform at the worldwide box office.
18. ‘MaXXXine’
Worldwide Box Office Range: $27M to $37M
A24 has had a relatively strong start to the year with Civil War which grossed nearly $90M and will likely end up being the indie studio’s second-biggest box office performance ever. It’s clear that A24 is aiming to set their sets higher than they have in the past in terms of the box office. MaXXXine is their chance to do so.
Both the previous installments in the trilogy, X (2022) and Pearl were made on razor-thin budgets, which helped them perform beyond expectations both combined grossing nearly $25M. That success will likely push A24 to advertise MaXXXine much harder than either of those films. Both films had fantastic word-of-mouth post-release so we are expecting a good return for A24.
17. ‘Longlegs’
Worldwide Box Office Range: $29M to $41M
Longlegs has had a fantastic creative marketing campaign from Neon that is ramping up the closer we get to the release date. While this Nic Cage starrer may not be everyone’s cup of tea, it is likely to bring in horror fans. It has a real chance to break out if the movie is nearly as good as the marketing campaign has been.
16. ‘The Watchers’
Worldwide Box Office Range: $34M to $46M
The Watchers is a tough one to judge because the truth is that this film could do absolutely nothing at the box office but also could do well. While it doesn’t have any stars and is a debut from director Ishana Night Shyamalan, it has the backing of Warner Bros. This could play an important part in what it ends up doing at the box office. How Warner Bros. markets and pushes this could really determine the box office performance. We’ve decided to go with a very broad range on this because of its uncertainty.
15. ‘Kinds of Kindness’
Worldwide Box Office Range: $76.5M to $103.5M
Yorgos Lanthimos has made a name for himself at the box office with his last two Emma Stone films, Poor Things and The Favourite. Both films feasted internationally to make fantastic returns. Kinds of Kindness is likely to do the same. While we don’t think it will do as well as Poor Things did because it’s an anthology, we do still think with Searchlight’s backing it should do quite well.
14. ‘The Bikeriders’
Worldwide Box Office Range: $87M to $118M
The Bikeriders is a tough film to judge but two things it boasts are that it has stars, and it has good reception. Austin Butler has never been more in the public eye than he has been with Dune: Part Two, this has a real chance to propel this film. While people aren’t going to see films for just stars, this film may have the other intangibles required to help it. All it needs is a good marketing campaign from Focus Pictures, which acquired the film in late 2023.
13. ‘Fly Me to the Moon’
Worldwide Box Office Range: $111M to $150M
Fly Me to the Moon is Apple’s latest attempt at box office success. While Killers of the Flower Moon and Napoleon didn’t do gangbusters, they made some money before going to Apple TV+. This is likely going to be the case here too. The movie reportedly had a budget of $100M, which we don’t think it will make back, but there’s a chance it can do a respectable number utilizing Scarlett Johansen’s star power.
12. ‘The Fall Guy’
Worldwide Box Office Range: $170M to $230M
The Fall Guy has damn good reviews but can it produce equivalent box office results? It’s projected to open to under $30M domestically, but to be completely fair to the film it’s likely to be more of a word-of-mouth film akin to Bullet Train. We might be being a bit optimistic here but a fun film like this could do fairly decently in the end.
12. ‘IF’
Worldwide Box Office Range: $178.5M to $241.5M
IF has a couple of things going for it. It’s a film that will likely draw in families, but the real question is can it dominate that market? Garfield comes out only a week after IF, so this film would really have to hold its own to penetrate that market. The film is projected to open to $40M domestically so it should at least get a good head start.
10. ‘Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1’
Worldwide Box Office Range: $233M to $316M
Kevin Costner’s passion project is finally here this summer, and it’s impossible to predict. Costner is coming off the massive hit series Yellowstone, which is not too dissimilar from the audience the film is going for. This could be the saving grace for the film. While Westerns haven’t quite done well recently, maybe Costner can push this to new heights.
9. ‘A Quiet Place: Day One’
Worldwide Box Office Range: $242M to $327M
A Quiet Place: Day One is a spin-off prequel to A Quiet Place. It’s the first film that doesn’t feature John Krasinski behind the camera, and Emily Blunt in front of it. Both the first two films in the franchise did well so this will likely use that popularity to do decent numbers here.
8. ‘Bad Boys: Ride or Die’
Worldwide Box Office Range: $318M to $431M
Bad Boys for Life was the highest-grossing film of 2020. It was a massive down year because of the coronavirus sweeping up the world, but it made $426M despite the end of its run being cut short. We think this one will do slightly worse numbers but still very respectable for the franchise.
7. ‘Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga’
Worldwide Box Office Range: $320M to $434M
Furiosa is the prequel to one of the greatest action films ever made, Mad Max: Fury Road. We’ll likely find out if it lives up to its predecessor when it premieres at the 2024 Cannes Film Festival. That reception will likely be key in determining if this film does okay and loses a bit of money vs. doing some real damage. Fury Road made a very respectable $380M so we do expect similar numbers here if the reception is good.
6. ‘Twisters’
Worldwide Box Office Range: $446M to $603M
There is nothing harder to predict than legacy sequels, especially one that is 28 years after the original. Sometimes you get a Creed, or a Top Gun: Maverick, but you can also get Indiana Jones: Dial of Destiny. The original film did incredibly well for the time grossing $494M, and honestly it’s hard to tell if Twisters will reach that number, but we think it can. The interest level is relatively high on Quorum and there’s been a respectable amount of buzz for the film. That’s why we expect this to do well.
5. ‘Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes’
Worldwide Box Office Range: $464M to $627M
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes is a sequel to one of the greatest modern trilogies. While the box office results were slightly inconsistent in the previous trilogy, with War for the Planet of the Apes not doing as well as expected, this will do better. The reception looks good so far, as some early viewers call it a worthy entry in the franchise.
This film is projected to have a $60M opening weekend domestically which may not seem high until you realize this is an international heavy box office franchise. Nearly 68% of the franchise gross has come internationally. We expect this to do better than War for the Planet of the Apes but not quite as well as Dawn of the Planet of the Apes.
4. ‘The Garfield Movie’
Worldwide Box Office Range: $488M to $661M
The Garfield Movie is expected to do very well internationally, as it is already selling like hotcakes in South America. It might not do nearly as well domestically, but the character is popular enough to have breakout potential.
3. ‘Inside Out 2’
Worldwide Box Office Range: $618M to $836M
Inside Out 2‘s appeal is simple but it still has a few eggs to crack before we can declare the potential it has. Pixar’s past output at the box office is a bit worrying. It took Elemental incredible word of mouth over time to get close to breaking even but the bigger issues are the films before that. Then again, neither of these films was a direct sequel to a very popular franchise.
It’s been 9 years since we’ve stepped into Riley’s mind, so I question whether the audience for this film is grown-up kids who have nostalgia for the first film or if it’s to bring in a new audience of kids. If it can hit both of these audiences, this film will do insane numbers, but it should do fine if it can reach even one of them.
2. ‘Deadpool & Wolverine’
Worldwide Box Office Range: $773M to $991M
The appeal of Deadpool & Wolverine is simple, it’s in the title. Does this film have enough juice to be the first superhero movie since Spider-Man: No Way Home to hit $1B at the box office? It’s hard to tell but we think it might not. It’s a safer bet to take the under on it. This film should do well for Marvel Studios in the end but we think it will fall short of that billion dollar mark. Nonetheless, this film will likely be the highest-grossing in the trilogy and of Marvel’s best performers in a long time.
1. ‘Despicable Me 4’
Worldwide Box Office Range: $871M to $1.17B
Despicable Me 4 is the safest bet to make if someone asked what film this year will make a billion dollars. It’s a consistently proven franchise. Through five previous films, four of them have made over $900M. We think this one will also hit that mark easily and likely scrape that billion-dollar mark proving to be another win for Illumination at the box office.
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